Remaining games
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- Billy The Boot Boy
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Remaining games
We have 16 games to play, and of those 6 are against current top half teams.
After the next two games away to Barnet and Carlisle we will have 4 games against top half teams and 10 against bottom half, so if we can get something from the next two, especially at Carlisle, we will theoretically at least be in a decent position.
This sounds fine, but we are talking about Pompey here, so we just know that it is not going to turn out like that! As Paul Cook has been saying all season, we just need to think about the next game, and go from there.
Nevertheless, if I didn't feel that it would jinx us, I would be slightly optimistic.
After the next two games away to Barnet and Carlisle we will have 4 games against top half teams and 10 against bottom half, so if we can get something from the next two, especially at Carlisle, we will theoretically at least be in a decent position.
This sounds fine, but we are talking about Pompey here, so we just know that it is not going to turn out like that! As Paul Cook has been saying all season, we just need to think about the next game, and go from there.
Nevertheless, if I didn't feel that it would jinx us, I would be slightly optimistic.
- Lost in Transportation
- Guy Whittingham
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Re: Remaining games
Just win the next game and the rest will sort itself out.
Watching wheels spin and dust settle.
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- Mick Channon
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Re: Remaining games
Just noticed you have the best defensive record in the division so that should give some confidence
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- Guy Whittingham
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Re: Remaining games
With Forde in goal?itsaintfunny wrote:Just noticed you have the best defensive record in the division so that should give some confidence
.,
Philipians 4:13
I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me.
I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me.
- Portchester PFC
- Kev the Kitman
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- The Cincinnati Kid
- Guy Whittingham
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Re: Remaining games
yup....its not a "must win" but it's a must not lose.Portchester PFC wrote:Carlisle is the key game.
Carlisle are not in a good run of form....perhaps the worst form of the top 8 teams
Div III. Call it what it is.
- Pompey Penguin
- Billy The Boot Boy
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Re: Remaining games
OK, we are about 2/3rds of the way through the season. We have 15 games left, but most teams only 14 (Morecambe's 16 means they might still dream of the play-offs, but no more than that). Our games are 8 at home and 7 away; 4 against teams in the top 1/3rd, 5 middle 1/3rd and 6 bottom 1/3rd. We have amassed 52 points from our 32 games, which is about 1.67 points per game and continuing that form would give us 77-78 points on the season.
Over the last ten years of L2, the team finishing third has had a mean of 82.6 points (median 83; max 88; min 78; last two years both 85). In six of those ten years, the 3rd team has been no more than 1 point ahead of the fourth team. If Carlisle continue their form for the season they will finish with 83-84 points; Luton 76-77 points. It's not unreasonable to think of 85 points as an automatic promotion target at this stage.
To reach 85 points, we need 33 points from 15 games; better than championship form (usually reckoned to be about two points per game), but not unachievable over a short-ish run of games. Basically, this means winning all our (8) home games and winning three away games (draws are better than losing, but not very helpful overall). This is a tough ask given our inconsistency, and another run at the play-offs would be a more likely outcome, but not so difficult that we can't remain optimistic.
Over the last ten years of L2, the team finishing third has had a mean of 82.6 points (median 83; max 88; min 78; last two years both 85). In six of those ten years, the 3rd team has been no more than 1 point ahead of the fourth team. If Carlisle continue their form for the season they will finish with 83-84 points; Luton 76-77 points. It's not unreasonable to think of 85 points as an automatic promotion target at this stage.
To reach 85 points, we need 33 points from 15 games; better than championship form (usually reckoned to be about two points per game), but not unachievable over a short-ish run of games. Basically, this means winning all our (8) home games and winning three away games (draws are better than losing, but not very helpful overall). This is a tough ask given our inconsistency, and another run at the play-offs would be a more likely outcome, but not so difficult that we can't remain optimistic.
- The Cincinnati Kid
- Guy Whittingham
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Re: Remaining games
Also worth mentioning....the teams above us must surely be playing each other and also good teams from the top 8, so points will be dropped somewhere from our adversaries. Its still in our hands fer sure
Div III. Call it what it is.
- Lost in Transportation
- Guy Whittingham
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Re: Remaining games
From Donald on POL:The Cincinnati Kid wrote:Also worth mentioning....the teams above us must surely be playing each other and also good teams from the top 8, so points will be dropped somewhere from our adversaries. Its still in our hands fer sure
Top 7 Games still to play:
Feb 25th - Luton vs Plymouth
Feb 25th - Carlisle vs Portsmouth
March 4th - Plymouth vs Carlisle
March 14th - Carlisle vs Luton
March 18th - Luton vs Exeter
March 26th - Doncaster vs Plymouth
April 14th - Portsmouth vs Plymouth
April 29th - Doncaster vs Exeter
May 6th - Exeter vs Carlisle
Watching wheels spin and dust settle.
- The Cincinnati Kid
- Guy Whittingham
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Re: Remaining games
Nice...Plymouth and Carlisle really have some big fixtures...I sure hope we are smart enough to get our ship up to Carlisle a day early and not go there to play right after getting off the busLost in Transportation wrote:From Donald on POL:The Cincinnati Kid wrote:Also worth mentioning....the teams above us must surely be playing each other and also good teams from the top 8, so points will be dropped somewhere from our adversaries. Its still in our hands fer sure
Top 7 Games still to play:
Feb 25th - Luton vs Plymouth
Feb 25th - Carlisle vs Portsmouth
March 4th - Plymouth vs Carlisle
March 14th - Carlisle vs Luton
March 18th - Luton vs Exeter
March 26th - Doncaster vs Plymouth
April 14th - Portsmouth vs Plymouth
April 29th - Doncaster vs Exeter
May 6th - Exeter vs Carlisle
Div III. Call it what it is.
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- Milan Mandaric
- Posts: 531
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Re: Remaining games
But unfortunately they've won their last 2 - home against Donnie and away at Wycombe so they should be feeling fairly confident.The Cincinnati Kid wrote:Portchester PFC wrote: Carlisle are not in a good run of form....perhaps the worst form of the top 8 teams
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- Billy The Boot Boy
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Re: Remaining games
The Cincinnati Kid wrote:
Nice...Plymouth and Carlisle really have some big fixtures...I sure hope we are smart enough to get our ship up to Carlisle a day early and not go there to play right after getting off the bus
Accordingly to Paul Cook in his pre match interview we are flying up tomorrow - good news.
- Selsey Bill
- Interim Manager
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Re: Remaining games
As far as I am aware, gone are the days of the coach journey on the day. Pretty sure we always go at least a day early, even for 'local' away games - for instance, we stayed overnight before Wycombe game, not that it did us any goodThe Cincinnati Kid wrote: I sure hope we are smart enough to get our ship up to Carlisle a day early and not go there to play right after getting off the bus
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