Looking Ahead to October: 11pts the target

[Jack_Tinn]

Pompey are top, unbeaten and clearly enjoying life right now after ten games (two months) of the season. Can they keep it up during October?

Pompey face the following league games in October:

Coventry (a)
Gillingham (H)
AFC WImbledon (a)
Fleetwood (H)
Burton (H)
Accrington (a)

Believe it or not but a third of the season will be over by the time Pompey make the long run home from Accrington.

Three away games, three homes and two midweek league games highlight the month. At the end of September only Accy (8th) is a top 10 team and only two of the six opponents have a positive goal difference (Accy +2 and Fleetwood +4). Pompey are the leagues joint 2nd highest scorers (with Sunderland with 20 goals) and have the the third best defence (only conceding 8 goals in 10 games). Only Doncaster and Charlton have slightly better form than Pompey right now.

The trip to Coventry kicks off the month and the talking point about Chaplin is an obvious and simple place to start. He should not be permitted to play vs Pompey in this match as he is on loan from Pompey. That gives Coventry a problem too because they go into the game without a goalscorer and they have only scored 8 goals all season but they are quite stingy in defence conceding only 11 so far this season in 10 games. Coventry have won three, drawn 3 and lost four so far. Coventry have drawn with Sunderland and beaten Barnsley in their last two home games and have Doyle in midfield who won't need any further motivation. Everything is pointing to this being a tight affair and the first goal may be key. Curtis and Brown formed quite an effective attack down the left side and Pittman seems to have regained the scoring touch....can this prove decisive on Tuesday in Coventry (never a happy hunting ground as I recall for Pompey)? I think we need a clean sheet on Tuesday and then we might come away with a scrappy win.

Pompey host Gillingham at home on the Saturday and I am looking for three pts. Gillingham have lost four and drawn one in the last five games, are in the bottom four and have already been beaten 4-0 at FP last month in the 'whatever cup'. They won't fancy coming to FP and have the third worst defence in the league (after Oxford and Rochdale)so if Pompey can come out early and establish control of the game this could be a good win.

Wimbledon away. oh the horror flashbacks of strange own goals from kick-offs, Dennis wise, Fashanu, transfers (reo coker etc) that didn't happen and then come back to haunt us for ages......oh and the only loss this season was against Wimbledon in the cup....not confident about this game as you can see. I'll take anything from this fixture, indeed I'll just be glad when it is been played and its behind us. I think this is where the unbeaten run ends....

As the nights draw in and the weather turns colder Pompey return from South London to two home games in four days. First up Fleetwood visit. Their current record of W3 D3 L4 and 14 goals for and only 10 against suggests another tight affair. Their last two away games were a 1-1 at Sunderland and a 1-0 loss at Southend - underlining my thoughts that they are likely to put up a stern test. ( perhaps only interesting me but the preceding games for Fleetwood are all familiar to Pompey: Wycombe H, Donny (a) Rochdale (h), Shrews (h) ) and would suggest that Fleetwood's away form won't have improved with Donny away sandwiched inbetween three home games). I'm projecting a 2-1 win for Pompey

Next up the game that Naylor has been looking forward to it: Burton at home. At this stage Burton's record is W3 D2 lost 4 (from 9 games) scoring 10 and conceding 11. A team struggling for goals therefore with a decent defence. You'd think it would be a tight game but its worth seeing that Burton have drawn a tough away game on the Saturday before this game with the gentle trip to Plymouth from the midlands before the short turn around to travel down to face Pompey. Not ideal preparation for them and I'm seeing a Pompey win - and a first goal for Naylor to boot - from this game.

last up on 27th is the long trip to Accrington Stanley for Pompey. Stanley have only lost once in their first 10 games (4W 5D and 1L) which is impressive given they have only scored 13 goals and conceded 11. They are 1-0 and 1-1 specialists so far and this will be no easy away trip for Pompey. The agro between the clubs may have passed with Mr Cook leaving and a high turn over of players but KJ would be wise not to assume this is the case. Stanley could be lying in wait for Pompey and I would not be surprised if this game became a little heated. Stanley have played Peterborough (h) and Luton (a) in their previous two games so this is a third tough game for them in a week but two of those are at home and they will be used to dealing with a robust midfield and defending some attacking firepower when Pompey roll into town. I'd take a draw here and consider it a point won rather than two lost.

IN summary - October. I can see some tough battles for Pompey during October but there are no true contender on that list. I'm looking for 11pts from the possible 18 this month (getting Pompey to 35pts from 16 games and on course for 105pts for the season... (if only)

Ps - Peterborough go to Sunderland in midweek, then are home to Barnsley, away to Scunny, home to Stanley and Fleetwood and then finish at Burton.

[New Forester]

Stop winding us up. I get nervous at great expectations. But this cheers me up after reading the Brexit thread.

[Jack_Tinn]

not trying to build up expectations. Just saying that my target pts return for October from the games we have is 11 from 18.

I think that is achievable. Has to be if we are serious about making the top 6

[Milton End]

not trying to build up expectations. Just saying that my target pts return for October from the games we have is 11 from 18.

I think that is achievable. Has to be if we are serious about making the top 6

Thanks JT - another thoughtful analysis.

Think you're being a bit pessimistic about Wimbledon away: the loss in August had one or two team members who are no longer first team picks, such as Walkes who gave away the winner, and the Chapman substitution, who has now left. Also, Pitman seems to be improving, etc

But Division 1 remains a tough scene - patchy refereeing and strong, physical players.

Will be more than happy with your projected 11 points, however they are achieved!

[Jack_Tinn]

well chalk up 3 of the 11 from tonight's game at Coventry.

I thought the records to date suggested a scrappy 1-0 was on the cards. Just glad of course that the goal was scored by Pompey.

Really pleased with the clean sheet too - really need a few of those this month.

What really helps tonight is that of the top 7 teams at the start of play only Pompey managed to pick up 3 pts!!

[RubiconCSL]

Yep, a great start to the month. Blunderland and Posh drawing was the best result we could have hoped for there I think too. Onwards and upwards it seems at the moment. I just need to get that Pompey fan experience of the past out of my head and enjoy it. If the wheels fall off, so be it. But so far the wheel nuts look pretty well tightened to me

well chalk up 3 of the 11 from tonight's game at Coventry.

I thought the records to date suggested a scrappy 1-0 was on the cards. Just glad of course that the goal was scored by Pompey.

Really pleased with the clean sheet too - really need a few of those this month.

What really helps tonight is that of the top 7 teams at the start of play only Pompey managed to pick up 3 pts!!

[Locky_McLockface]

I think we can be reasonably confident of good results from all of these games.

Gillingham were beaten 4-0 at FP by the B team, so you'd have to be looking at a win there, even if it's by a lesser margin.

Yes, we lost to AFC Wimbledon, but of the team that played, you can expect McGee, Walkes, Burgess, Haunstrup and Wheeler not to feature in the league game. I'd suspect a 1-1 there at worst.

If The Run is going to end in October, I've got a nagging suspicion it'll be at home to Fleetwood. Don't know why, but I do. Stanley, too, might be a stumbling block.

[Pompey Penguin]

I don't have many worries about October, or for that matter March & April, although anything can go wrong on any particular match day. We know that this team can play on fast pitches.

The challenge will come as we get into the winter months. Barring too many injuries/suspensions, I am sure the defence will cope OK, but will we still be a threat in attack? Lowe is not the strongest of players and has a record of tiring in games (but has looked better this year), Curtis is playing his first season at this level, Close has only played part seasons and Evans is in a new position. Pitman will score, but will the backup players step up to create chances and allow our present XI downtime? This is where Danny Rose could become vital (as he was in November/December last year), but I am not convinced about the others.

[Lost in Transportation]

Lowe is not the strongest of players and has a record of tiring in games (but has looked better this year)

Lowe wasn't looking remotely tired on Tuesday evening. It was his speed and power that enabled Pompey to have a genuine out-ball in the last fifteen minutes of the game. Two away games in short order, played the whole games, did the traveling and was still bombing on and causing problems in stoppage time.

[<dj.>]

Well, Jack, you were right - 11 points from 18. Not quite the 11 you predicted but bang on 11. Thoughts for November?

[Lost in Transportation]

Well, Jack, you were right - 11 points from 18. Not quite the 11 you predicted but bang on 11. Thoughts for November?

Indeed. 8-10 points for me in November. What say you Jack?

[Pompey Penguin]

Charlton (H) now postponed, so November looking like a month of few points. Only three games; two away (Bradford, Scunthorpe) plus one home (Walsall). Hope our away form holds up.

[Jack_Tinn]

Well, Jack, you were right - 11 points from 18. Not quite the 11 you predicted but bang on 11. Thoughts for November?

just returned from a holiday overseas - so unable to put my thoughts for November up before now. I will put my thoughts down for November before the weekend (once I have recovered from the long flight home and the shock of work tomorrow!) but I had Pompey to beat Bradford away and Maidenhead away. I'll take a look at Scunnie's form and see if Curtis will be available for that game and then come back to you if I can.

Agreed - I had 11 pts but they came from a slightly different way than I thought, but not wildly out.