"Tis better to die on our feet than live on our knees

[The Cincinnati Kid]

5: Would you put an app on yer smartphone that allows govt. to tell you to quarantine if you've come in contact with an infected person?

Not a chance

Glad you got a negative test .

As for the app no chance. Not after what happened with Cambridge Analytica. The government are already lying about the scope of the app and data being collected and it's not even out yet! It already looks to me that it would be possible for personal information to be deduced given that you have to register your phone, provide the first part of your postcode and also your phone make and model. Also wide open for trolling. What's to stop me going back to work then falsely claiming I've had symptoms causing everyone to have to self isolate? I imagine some kids would be smart enough to do this and try and get a few extra weeks off school.

The claim:
Any information you submit is deleted once it is no longer needed to help manage the spread of coronavirus.
https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/information/nhs ... -explainer

The truth:
Britons will not be able to ask NHS admins to delete their COVID-19 contact-tracking data from government servers, digital arm NHSX's chief exec Matthew Gould admitted to MPs this afternoon.

Gould also told Parliament's Human Rights Committee that data harvested from Britons through NHSX's COVID-19 contact tracing app would be "pseudonymised" - and appeared to leave the door open for that data to be sold on for "research".
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/0 ... arliament/

good points. My perspective was..... so I brush past a person at the grocery store and "ding"....you'd be in 2 week quarantine multiple times I should think.
As for Mrs Kids negative test, we're both fairly convinced she already had it. Sickish (not too bad) back in early March and she works the front door at COSTCO and was in contact with hundreds every day Jan through early April. So if she had it, I would have to have had it (no symptoms for me other than a 1 day scratchy throat back in early Apr). I have that anti body test available now but awaiting its reliability numbers before taking it.
As for Lady Kids test last week, she basically had a head cold but needed to be sure as she was taking a long road trip to New Mexico and the destination included a couple of very elderly vunerable people so you gotta be sure before you take off.

[Mr Dee]

Here's the interesting dilemma for everyone.
Lets assume this is the "new normal" say for the next couple of years at least until a reliable vaccine is found.
Lets also assume the death rate is 0.2% or 2 in 1000 which I appreciate could be incorrect as we don't know. That's based on the shedloads of people that had it with no symptoms and were never tested, and the 2 smallish sampling experiments of random people in LA County. But for the sake of this post....0.2%

1: At what point would you start to go back out / back to work / back to living normally and accept that risk?

Me: Today but with sensible precautions that might tighten or slacken as data changes

2: Would you go to Fratton Park?

Hmmmm….probably not

3: Would you take the vaccine if one were available tomorrow?

Not for a year or 2 until I see it proven effective with acceptable normal vaccine type risks that would have to be much lower than the risk of not getting a vaccine

4: Would you fly?

Probably but I'd look at drivable vacations first

5: Would you put an app on yer smartphone that allows govt. to tell you to quarantine if you've come in contact with an infected person?

Not a chance


Couple of brief mentions. Mrs Kid got tested last week due to having some symptoms, easy to find and get a test, results in 48 hrs (negative)

And welcome to the board NZ poster

1. Today

2. Yes.

3. No

4. Yes

5. No.

[GreenBlue]

1: At what point would you start to go back out / back to work / back to living normally and accept that risk?

2: Would you go to Fratton Park?

3: Would you take the vaccine if one were available tomorrow?

4: Would you fly?

5: Would you put an app on yer smartphone that allows govt. to tell you to quarantine if you've come in contact with an infected person?

1. When scientists and doctors agree it is safe to do so without risking a second spike. Also when my organisation provide decent hand washing facilities.

2. Ditto point 1.

3. No. I admire some people's bravery becoming guinea pigs for essential vaccines but unless it was properly tried and tested I would wait.

4. Not at the moment.

5. I need to know more about it and the background to it. I already take part in a Covid-19 tracker run by Kings College.

[Mr Dee]

So we are in this lockdown because this joker said we'd have 500,000 deaths.

I guess ferking the economy wasn't enough.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... RS4lrtNXXQ

[SouthernPies]

Thanks CK, pleased Mrs K is negative.
I am like many here who are adverse to FB and other social media. Even more so since April 2019 .
This site keeps me up to date with my team, like the balance and calmness.
When im in the UK , always try and make a game or two. Last game was 2018 against Argyle at home. "3-1 on your big day out".

[GreenBlue]

So we are in this lockdown because this joker said we'd have 500,000 deaths.

I guess ferking the economy wasn't enough.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... RS4lrtNXXQ

Yes, and he would probably have been correct if we hadn't followed such advice.

[Mr Dee]

So we are in this lockdown because this joker said we'd have 500,000 deaths.

I guess ferking the economy wasn't enough.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... RS4lrtNXXQ

Yes, and he would probably have been correct if we hadn't followed such advice.

He has a good record apparently .

2001
Professor Ferguson worked on research that led to the mass culling of hundreds of thousands of farm animals during the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic. His work was later challenged in reviews by other academics.

2002
Predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people could die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have been fewer than 200 deaths from the human form of BSE

2005
Prof Ferguson claimed that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. In an interview with the Guardian, he compared it to the 1918 Spanish flu, adding: “There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.” Only several hundred people died worldwide.

2009
The Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate of between 0.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent, with his most likely estimate landing at 0.4 per cent. A Government estimate based on his advice was that a reasonable worst-case scenario was the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths. Swine flu killed just 457 people in the UK, with the chief medical officer concluding in 2009 that the actual mortality rate was 0.026 per cent.

March 2020
A paper produced by Prof Ferguson’s team predicted that the coronavirus pandemic could lead to 250,000 deaths in the UK unless stringent lockdown measures were implemented. His research is said to have convinced the Government to change direction.

May 5 2020
Professor Ferguson quits the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) after The Telegraph confronts him over his married lover visiting him at his home, thereby breaking the lockdown rules

[Sam_Brown]

@The Cincinnati Kid

I have a question for you for once

Considering the number of US cases and deaths seem to still be increasing and people want to end the lockdown then was there any point in having one in the first place? If there was a point what was it? Especially considering people seemingly want to end it as things are getting worse not better. Do people feel there was no benefit of the lockdown at all?

[The Cincinnati Kid]

@The Cincinnati Kid

I have a question for you for once

Considering the number of US cases and deaths seem to still be increasing and people want to end the lockdown then was there any point in having one in the first place? If there was a point what was it? Especially considering people seemingly want to end it as things are getting worse not better. Do people feel there was no benefit of the lockdown at all?

Its complicated. According to the last polls I saw, 65% still support lockdowns to various degrees. However, If you've ever visited the USA one thing that strikes is the huge distances between cities and the vast open spaces. Because of this, its very hard to convince the good folks of Kentucky, just across the river from me with 5500 cases, under 300 casualties (population 4.5 million) that they need to operate in the same way as NYC or even in the same way as a KY city.
Most all support the original shutdowns which were presented as "flatten the curve" and don't overwhelm the medical system. So, now that has been largely accomplished, many feel its time to move on and that number grows daily. The vast majority of outbreaks here are reported as being from the following: Retirement homes / prisons / Indian reservations / Shipping / high density populations / large workplace still open with close worker proximity (meatpackers). Places where your exposures are likely out of your control and you have a general level of close proximity, poor sanitation, high degrees of public transport and other factors. This just doesn't apply to Bunghole KY or indeed even the leafy suburbs of Cincinnati. Also, when the flatten the curve was presented, only a very few souls were brave enough to say publicly….its just a tactic that spreads the illnesses and deaths over a longer period of time but ultimately, what will be will be.
So, although there is a clear couple of advantages in slowing down the spread, ie you have more access to medical, maybe a helpful drug will show up, maybe we get closer to a vaccine, maybe warm weather will abate the situation.....you just get to that point where the cure is worse than the disease. On top of all that, there's been a lot of nonsense from various govt entities on which business should close and which can stay open.

[RubiconCSL]

To be fair though. He is punching well above his weight there, so you can't blame him. She might get her eyesight back sooner than he expected.

To answer the questions.....
I'd probably feel safe today - although as I have to work away from home, I'm far preferring this fulltime WFH business.
No
Never, or at least not until I see Bill Gates and his family have it, rather than all the Africans he's happy to test them on.
No
No

So we are in this lockdown because this joker said we'd have 500,000 deaths.

I guess ferking the economy wasn't enough.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... RS4lrtNXXQ

[Sam_Brown]

@The Cincinnati Kid

I have a question for you for once

Considering the number of US cases and deaths seem to still be increasing and people want to end the lockdown then was there any point in having one in the first place? If there was a point what was it? Especially considering people seemingly want to end it as things are getting worse not better. Do people feel there was no benefit of the lockdown at all?

Its complicated. According to the last polls I saw, 65% still support lockdowns to various degrees. However, If you've ever visited the USA one thing that strikes is the huge distances between cities and the vast open spaces. Because of this, its very hard to convince the good folks of Kentucky, just across the river from me with 5500 cases, under 300 casualties (population 4.5 million) that they need to operate in the same way as NYC or even in the same way as a KY city.
Most all support the original shutdowns which were presented as "flatten the curve" and don't overwhelm the medical system. So, now that has been largely accomplished, many feel its time to move on and that number grows daily. The vast majority of outbreaks here are reported as being from the following: Retirement homes / prisons / Indian reservations / Shipping / high density populations / large workplace still open with close worker proximity (meatpackers). Places where your exposures are likely out of your control and you have a general level of close proximity, poor sanitation, high degrees of public transport and other factors. This just doesn't apply to Bunghole KY or indeed even the leafy suburbs of Cincinnati. Also, when the flatten the curve was presented, only a very few souls were brave enough to say publicly….its just a tactic that spreads the illnesses and deaths over a longer period of time but ultimately, what will be will be.
So, although there is a clear couple of advantages in slowing down the spread, ie you have more access to medical, maybe a helpful drug will show up, maybe we get closer to a vaccine, maybe warm weather will abate the situation.....you just get to that point where the cure is worse than the disease. On top of all that, there's been a lot of nonsense from various govt entities on which business should close and which can stay open.

Just to keep making things interesting: So with what we know now, regardless of how it was presented at the time do you feel there was any benefit to the lockdown? Especially considering how many new cases and deaths are still reported everyday and deaths predicted to raise to 3,000 a day by the end of the month which doesn't sound like flattening the curve.

Maybe another way of asking this is would you support future lockdowns if we were to find ourselves in a similar situation with a slightly different virus again in 10 years time?

Edit: as always you make some good points and happy to answer those as well but just keen to tie you down to one particular query!

[The Cincinnati Kid]

Yes, the benefit was that hospitals were not overloaded (couple of exceptions) and we brought time to acquire more/better testing / ventilators / masks / med gowns / other PPE etc etc and to learn more.
Would I support it in the future?....well it depends on the information available at the time and what we'll eventually find out about this one and what we'll eventually find out about the effects of this lockdown and how we measure those effects vs deaths / illnesses / death rates.

As I said early in the thread, you don't trash the economies of millions to save 1 life, you do to save 1 million.....where's the middle ground/the number we can live with.....I dunno!

[The Cincinnati Kid]

Yes, the benefit was that hospitals were not overloaded (couple of exceptions) and we brought time to acquire more/better testing / ventilators / masks / med gowns / other PPE etc etc and to learn more.
Would I support it in the future?....well it depends on the information available at the time and what we'll eventually find out about this one and what we'll eventually find out about the effects of this lockdown and how we measure those effects vs deaths / illnesses / death rates.

As I said early in the thread, you don't trash the economies of millions to save 1 life, you do to save 1 million.....where's the middle ground/the number we can live with.....I dunno!

So for instance, if a month from now Cincinnati starts to see a significant surge amongst the general populace (not just he retirement / prison population) then I'd support a locking down of this area....but not a lockdown of Bunghole Kentucky which doesn't have any cases.

[The Cincinnati Kid]

Here's a very interesting blurb.

Also, Fuksina says, the amount of viral load matters, meaning how much someone is exposed to the COVID-19 contagion. "Some health care workers on the frontlines get very sick when they are exposed to large amounts of viral particles," Fuksina explains. "If a person has inhaled a small amount of viral droplets and their immune system was able to launch a successful attack on the virus, they may have never gone on to develop any symptoms."

Full story for context. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... spartandhp

This explains why the majority of cases are where they are and why I should be able to (sensible precautions taken) play golf, go to the garden center and maybe even get a haircut.

[phat_chris]

Damn you really are obsessed with that haircut