The Pompey Chimes Forum

85 points will mean automatic promotion this season - that is with 8 games to go.

By the end I suspect 80pts will be sufficient.

Pompey currently have 65pts so five wins from the last eight should do it

Newport, Yeovil, Cambridge and Cheltenham (h) and Hartlepool (a) seem to me to be the prime candidates

If we win those five then Plymouth (h), Mansfield (a) and Notts County (a) as "bonus games!"

Been doing quite a bit of calculation in this area as well.

Yes the fixture list is quite kind but its still going to need a fair old run of results. A few examples below most of which show the need for a lot more consistency than Pompey have managed for most of the season.

4 wins 3 draws and a defeat gives us 80 points
5 wins 3 defeats gives us 80 points
4 wins and 4 draws gives us 81 points
5 wins 2 draws and a defeat gives us 82 points
6 wins and 2 defeats gives us 83 points

Just call me Paul Daniels.

This is your problem.

Stevenage (4 pts + GD behind Pompey).
Cambridge (A) Colchester (A) Carlisle (A) Yeovil (A)
Barnet (H) Morecambe (H) Mansfield (H) Accrington (H)

These are all winnable, especially given Stevenage's form. If you told me now that Stevenage would drop 5 points (W6, D1, L1), which would give them your 80 points and probably see us OK on GD, I would take it, but I can see them doing better than that. It is important to keep Plymouth in the equation. However, in reality the vital thing is that we keep winning to keep the pressure on both clubs; it will get increasingly difficult for Stevenage if they start HAVING to win games.

Pompey Penguin wrote:This is your problem.

Stevenage (4 pts + GD behind Pompey).
Cambridge (A) Colchester (A) Carlisle (A) Yeovil (A)
Barnet (H) Morecambe (H) Mansfield (H) Accrington (H)

These are all winnable, especially given Stevenage's form. If you told me now that Stevenage would drop 5 points (W6, D1, L1), which would give them your 80 points and probably see us OK on GD, I would take it, but I can see them doing better than that. It is important to keep Plymouth in the equation. However, in reality the vital thing is that we keep winning to keep the pressure on both clubs; it will get increasingly difficult for Stevenage if they start HAVING to win games.

On the plus side (for us), their captain has just been ruled out for the rest of the season.

Pompey Penguin wrote:This is your problem.

Stevenage (4 pts + GD behind Pompey).
Cambridge (A) Colchester (A) Carlisle (A) Yeovil (A)
Barnet (H) Morecambe (H) Mansfield (H) Accrington (H)

These are all winnable, especially given Stevenage's form. If you told me now that Stevenage would drop 5 points (W6, D1, L1), which would give them your 80 points and probably see us OK on GD, I would take it, but I can see them doing better than that. It is important to keep Plymouth in the equation. However, in reality the vital thing is that we keep winning to keep the pressure on both clubs; it will get increasingly difficult for Stevenage if they start HAVING to win games.

Whilst acknowledging Stevenage's great away form those games are difficult. We are at the stage of the season when those teams behind us HAVE to keep winning and hope we slip up. Funnily enough just like us last season. The pressure is on the chasers.

Pompey Penguin wrote:This is your problem.

Stevenage (4 pts + GD behind Pompey).
Cambridge (A) Colchester (A) Carlisle (A) Yeovil (A)
Barnet (H) Morecambe (H) Mansfield (H) Accrington (H)

These are all winnable, especially given Stevenage's form. If you told me now that Stevenage would drop 5 points (W6, D1, L1), which would give them your 80 points and probably see us OK on GD, I would take it, but I can see them doing better than that. It is important to keep Plymouth in the equation. However, in reality the vital thing is that we keep winning to keep the pressure on both clubs; it will get increasingly difficult for Stevenage if they start HAVING to win games.

85 pts will guarantee promotion this season. I stand behind my prediction that 80pts will be enough because I can see Stevenage dropping at least five points and it is a tough ask to close the +13 goal difference with only 8 games to go.

I know that I have said before that we are at the stage of the season when every game is "the most important of the season so far", but this weekend looks especially critical. Pompey are at home to Newport, whilst Stevenage have a tricky trip to Cambridge and Plymouth go to Doncaster on Sunday. One way or the other, the table could look very different by Sunday evening.

I think it will go right to the wire, between us and Stevenage. That's why that loss to them was SO significant. I've gone through the remaining fixtures and tried to be as honest as I could be with myself as to expectations and I see us pipping them by just 2pts. But I have to question my honesty with myself with those results. Hopefully I am right and they don't continue on there amazing run like Wovers did last season. I dont think I could cope with another play-off. I just keep remembering Leicester and Plymouth

Making accurate predictions in football is difficult enough but making them in League 2 is nigh on impossible. Pompey are 4 points clear of 4th with 8 games to go. I'd rather be in this position than in Stevenage's.

Pompey Gary wrote:Making accurate predictions in football is difficult enough but making them in League 2 is nigh on impossible. Pompey are 4 points clear of 4th with 8 games to go. I'd rather be in this position than in Stevenage's.

Oh so true!

So now 83pts are the magic number!

Five wins from 7 will guarantee promotion.

I am sticking with 80 pts being more than enough to get automatic promotion. Pompey are fully on track because with the goal difference Stevenage are effectively 3 games back with 7 to play

79 pts is enough now for automatic promotion with the surprise draw by Luton (at home to Orient) and the loss at home by Stevenage to Morecombe.

Pompey are nearly there

Jack_Tinn wrote:79 pts is enough now for automatic promotion with the surprise draw by Luton (at home to Orient) and the loss at home by Stevenage to Morecombe.

Pompey are nearly there

80 points. Luton can get 79 with 4 straight wins.

Still we're guaranteed a play-off spot.

Before today, Luton had five eminently winnable games. After today, it could be as good as all over on Monday.