CK, I don't think I could disagree with you more than I do on this one. Totally locking down the vulnerable would have been ineffective an pointless if the rest of society just went about their business as they would be never be safe to come out again using you analogy of NZ. So a life sentence for millions of vulnerable people.The Cincinnati Kid wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:08 pmyeah, with hindsight of course, an 8 week global lockdown with everyones military on the streets might have worked. The half hearted efforts of most democracies haven't worked well. The tactic perhaps (hindsight alert) should have been to totally lock down the vulnerable spots of society and let the rest of us get on with it until herd immunity and / or vaccine is achieved. I suspect y'all will see the same resurgence in the Euro countries opening back up. They say 20 x more peeps have had it than recorded positive tests so here at least we must be around 40 odd millions had it, most without knowing so, hopefully, you cant get it twice and herd immunity will be achieved..... which by now, with the cat being so far out of the bag is about the only way this is going away.Sam_Brown wrote: ↑Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:59 am That's fair. I think I'm of the opinion you can't control other peoples actions so all you can do is control your own and hope other people are considerate enough not to put you at risk intentionally.
I was also curious about The Cincinnati Kid's opinions as I know he's been very vocal on some aspects of the lockdown in this thread. Especially on stopping or in some cases reversing the easing of restrictions in many US states and if he still feels it's too much despite recent news of record cases in areas?
My opinion on lockdowns / shutdowns hasn't much changed. They have been shown to be ineffective in this society other than localized ones for the purpose of not overloading medical care. They do appear to have been effective in certain countries. NZ, Taiwan, S. Korea come to mind. But that would also mean those countries wont have any herd immunity so who knows how it will end up for them and will they be able to get back to business as normal.
Or wait until the vaccine? I hope you are right but despite what President S#!t for brains keeps telling us. there is currently little sign of a vaccine being available to all any time soon. Playing Devil's Advocate on this point, you suggest that countries like New Zealand will not have herd immunity but would they need that if a vaccine comes along?
The herd immunity argument, I have not seen any solid scientific evidence to prove that would work in this case as there is no evidence that it cannot be caught twice.
Who says the figure of those who have had it is 20 times what is reported? I do believe it is considerably more than reported but I would certainly not base any calculations comfortably on that figure.
Finally, your persisting idea of herd immunity is extremely dangerous. I know of youngsters who have been hit really badly by this and there are people who have died due to mass exposure to the virus so suggesting the fit just carry on as we did before would see an explosion in numbers and even more fit people succumbing to COVID. As PakefieldBlue say, his fit and healthy wife is still suffering fatigue weeks after contracting the virus and the same with my 23 year old son who caught it in March. (PB, I hope you wife gets back to full fitness and health soon)
I appreciate CK, that you are not a politician so is probably unfair to pick apart your opinions however my opinions differ so much on this point that I felt obliged to counter with my own. Anyway, all that said, stay safe over there, this virus really is nasty.