First 1/3 of the season

[Jack_Tinn]

One third of the season has passed. 15 games into the season and Pompey are top of the table with 35pts (2.33pts per game on average) having scored 25 goals (1.66 goals per game) and conceded 10 (0.66 per game).

Pompey have a three point lead on Oxford in 2nd and have 6pts lead on Bolton in 3rd but Bolton have a game in hand. Pompey have an eleven point lead on 7th placed Derby but the sights are set alot higher than just getting into the playoffs after the first third of the season.

If Pompey could stay on this pace then they would project to 107 pts and certain promotion!

Pompey are equal 4th highest scorers in the division and also have the best defensive record (Oxford are 2nd best with 14 goals conceded).

Pompey's opening third of the fixtures included six games against the current top 10. Three of which were at home and three away. These games were:

4th Peterborough (H) win
5th Barnsley (a) win
6th Stevenage (a) draw
7th Derby (a) draw
9th Lincoln (H) win
10th Wycombe (H) win

Really impressive to pick up 14pts from a possible 18 against those top 10 opponents. The wins vs Peterborough and Barnsley really stand out as being highlights.

During the next 15 games Pompey - on paper - have an easier run of games. There are only four games against teams in the top 10 and three of those are at home. The fourth game ( Oxford (a) ) may or may not be rearranged inside the next 15 league games.

The other three games are:

3rd Bolton (H);
6th Stevenage (H); and
8th Blackpool (H)

If Pompey are to achieve a target of 92 pts (2pts per game) for the season then they need to acquire 25pts during the next 15 games (1.66pts per game). Winning 8 games from 15 would get them 24pts - slightly better over the next tranche of league games than 'win one/lose one'. I would expect Pompey to overachieve during this period and I would like to see them achieve 30pts over that period.

The next fifteen league games are played between now and 3rd February 2024 and this period will also take into account the entire January transfer window.

PUP PPU

[Blue Walter]

One third of the season has passed. 15 games into the season and Pompey are top of the table with 35pts (2.33pts per game on average) having scored 25 goals (1.66 goals per game) and conceded 10 (0.66 per game).

Pompey have a three point lead on Oxford in 2nd and have 6pts lead on Bolton in 3rd but Bolton have a game in hand. Pompey have an eleven point lead on 7th placed Derby but the sights are set alot higher than just getting into the playoffs after the first third of the season.

If Pompey could stay on this pace then they would project to 107 pts and certain promotion!

Pompey are equal 4th highest scorers in the division and also have the best defensive record (Oxford are 2nd best with 14 goals conceded).

Pompey's opening third of the fixtures included six games against the current top 10. Three of which were at home and three away. These games were:

4th Peterborough (H) win
5th Barnsley (a) win
6th Stevenage (a) draw
7th Derby (a) draw
9th Lincoln (H) win
10th Wycombe (H) win

Really impressive to pick up 14pts from a possible 18 against those top 10 opponents. The wins vs Peterborough and Barnsley really stand out as being highlights.

During the next 15 games Pompey - on paper - have an easier run of games. There are only four games against teams in the top 10 and three of those are at home. The fourth game ( Oxford (a) ) may or may not be rearranged inside the next 15 league games.

The other three games are:

3rd Bolton (H);
6th Stevenage (H); and
8th Blackpool (H)

If Pompey are to achieve a target of 92 pts (2pts per game) for the season then they need to acquire 25pts during the next 15 games (1.66pts per game). Winning 8 games from 15 would get them 24pts - slightly better over the next tranche of league games than 'win one/lose one'. I would expect Pompey to overachieve during this period and I would like to see them achieve 30pts over that period.

The next fifteen league games are played between now and 3rd February 2024 and this period will also take into account the entire January transfer window.

PUP PPU

Excellent in depth analysis, although this is football and doesn't always go to plan. If it were to go as hoped it would be great.

[Jack_Tinn]

I agree about things do not go to plan and that nothing has been achieved yet. My main 'take-aways' though are

• that there were quite a few tough games in the first third - particularly away and Pompey have been excellent getting 14/18 pts against top 10 opponents. They have earnt their league table position.

• the next third of games are not quite as difficult on paper and Pompey have a great opportunity to press home their advantage

• the pace Pompey are on currently is more than enough over the course of the season to get promoted automatically

[Pompey1984+1]

I agree about things do not go to plan and that nothing has been achieved yet. My main 'take-aways' though are

• that there were quite a few tough games in the first third - particularly away and Pompey have been excellent getting 14/18 pts. They have earnt their league table position.

• the next third of games are not quite as difficult on paper and Pompey have a great opportunity to press home their advantage

• the pace Pompey are on currently is more than enough over the course of the season to get promoted automatically

I think the depth of the squad has been the biggest contributing factor to the points you have listed above - the fact we have been able to cover the loss of Scully, Pack, Oglivie and Rafferty for blocks of games is testament to this. It's also enabled some rotation.

I think it's good that Whyte has come back again and that we can perhaps take Kamara out for a bit of a rest will help - but I don't think many of our changes actually make us noticeable weaker which has meant be can rotate a little and cover injuries without imploding like previous season - this has kept the momentum.

[PeteM]

Thanks Jack, found that really interesting.

Agree with 1984+1 that we have had greater squad depth this season and that has been key in terms of our consistency but also been managed well by Mousinho.

It does seem that we were very clear on the role that every signing had within the squad, most notably that we wanted to have the ability to both make changes to freshen things up without making ourselves weaker but also to cover if we got serious injuries. Credit for this goes to both Mousinho and Hughes.

One other natural conclusion to draw is that this might also help us later in the season - in the past where we haven't been able to rotate as much we've got fatigued in February/March and our form has dropped off.

[Jack_Tinn]

Thanks Jack, found that really interesting.

Agree with 1984+1 that we have had greater squad depth this season and that has been key in terms of our consistency but also been managed well by Mousinho.

It does seem that we were very clear on the role that every signing had within the squad, most notably that we wanted to have the ability to both make changes to freshen things up without making ourselves weaker but also to cover if we got serious injuries. Credit for this goes to both Mousinho and Hughes.

One other natural conclusion to draw is that this might also help us later in the season - in the past where we haven't been able to rotate as much we've got fatigued in February/March and our form has dropped off.

I agree with the points being made about the squad depth. I would add that this also creates competition because many players know that they need to perform week in - week out if they want to retain their position in the first team. Sparkes and Oglivie (when fit), Shaughessy and Towler, Rafferty and Swanson, Lane and Whyte. This competition should create focus and lift performances.

[jam tomorrow]

I think this is a very interesting topic which covers some relevant points. Certainly having players competing for places also ensures we have injury replacements is a plus point. I also think that having less loan players is another advantage. However overall I believe the biggest advantage we’ve had this season is getting the players in early enough. This has created a squad that have bonded together and the early training has paid dividends.It has also allowed JM to realise his players capabilities right from the start

[NSRailings]

I think it's an important part of the season for players who haven't had many starts. Everyone was told they'll need to fight for their places and it's possible some heads could drop through lack of selection. So it was good to see Devlin start recently but a surprise to me that Sparkles was dropped. So cup games are important for fringe players to make a case.